The fire weather landscape across the United States has shifted dramatically in early November 2026. The Pacific Northwest has returned to below-normal fire potential following autumn rains and Cascade snowfall, while a new zone of elevated risk has emerged in a less expected location: the Mid-South.

According to the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC) fire potential outlooks and analysis from fire weather forecasters, the Pacific Northwest has dropped from elevated to below-normal fire potential — a significant change from conditions seen through most of the fall.

What Changed in the Pacific Northwest

The turning point was the October 21–23 storm system, which drew moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Trudy and delivered widespread rain across the Pacific Northwest, along with up to a foot of new snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges. This ended a prolonged dry streak that had kept fire potential elevated across the region.

Looking ahead, the storm track is expected to shift northward in the November 4–7 window, with forecasters calling for:

  • A slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and northern California
  • Heavy snow for the Cascades, Klamath Mountains, and northern Sierra Nevada
  • High winds along the Northwest coast

The Climate Prediction Centers late October outlooks favored below-normal temperatures for Washington, Oregon, and Montana, reinforcing the cool, damp pattern. No widespread Red Flag Warning setup is anticipated in the Pacific Northwest through early November.

Great Basin: Settling to Off-Season Levels

The Great Basin, which had elevated fire potential through mid-October, has also dropped to below-normal. Western Nevadas dry streak — driven by a prolonged absence of fall precipitation — ended when the Trudy remnant moisture moved through the region. NIFC had already projected the Great Basin would settle to off-season levels by late October.

Mid-South: The New Concern

The most significant fire weather concern nationally has shifted eastward. NIFCs November outlook places above-normal significant fire potential across:

  • Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas
  • Arkansas
  • North Mississippi
  • West and middle Tennessee
  • Kentucky

Drought has continued to worsen in the Lower Mississippi basin, and above-normal temperatures are favored across most of the country in the 8–14 day outlook period. As deciduous trees drop leaves, fresh surface fuel accumulates, and the combination of dry air, gusty winds, and low humidity can ignite and spread fires quickly across this landscape.

For Pacific Northwest Residents

While the immediate wildfire threat has diminished substantially, winter brings its own fire risks. Wind events can still fan residual heat in late-season fires like the Sisi Fire near Stehekin, and the transition to indoor wood burning elevates household fire and air quality risks. Residents should continue to monitor local fire weather forecasts through the National Weather Service and airnow.gov through the end of the season.