The National Interagency Fire Center's latest wildfire outlook for October 26 through November 8 paints a dramatically different risk picture for the Pacific Northwest versus the Mid-South — and the change is almost entirely weather-driven.
The West Gets a Break
A major storm system that swept through the western United States October 21-23, drawing moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Trudy, delivered the region's first real autumn precipitation of the season. The storm brought widespread rain across much of the Pacific Northwest and up to a foot of snow in higher Sierra Nevada elevations, ending an extended dry streak that had kept portions of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest in elevated fire-risk territory.
The result: the Pacific Northwest has slipped from elevated fire risk to below normal in the new outlook, and the Great Basin has dropped two full tiers to below normal. The Sierra Nevada front — which had been flagged as above normal just two weeks ago due to dry conditions — has also eased. Across the region, cooling temperatures, increased humidity, and moistened fuels are providing the natural suppression assist that fire agencies have been waiting for since summer.
PNW Weather Pattern Through Halloween
The Climate Prediction Center's most recent outlooks favor below-normal temperatures across Washington, Oregon, and Montana for the late-October period. No widespread Red Flag Weather setups were identified in the Pacific Northwest through the end of October, though forecasters note that conditions can change rapidly in the Northern Rockies — a reminder that the season never fully closes until snowpack is firmly in place.
Looking at the November 4-7 window, the CPC's week-two hazards outlook carries a slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and northern California, along with heavy snow potential for the Cascades, the Klamath Mountains, and the northern Sierra. High winds are also possible along the Northwest coast during that period.
Where the Risk Is Going: Mid-South in the Crosshairs
While the West cools, the center of fire danger is migrating east. The NIFC November outlook places above-normal significant fire potential from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas east through Arkansas, north Mississippi, west and middle Tennessee, and Kentucky. These states, which can run dry in strong El Niño years, are entering a period of leaf drop that adds fresh surface fuels to already-drying landscapes.
The October 22 U.S. Drought Monitor showed continued improvement in the Southern Plains and Four Corners region, but worsening drought in the Lower Mississippi basin — precisely the area where NIFC is most concerned about November fire activity. Forecasters caution that rain expected for the Southern Plains later in the two-week period carries significant uncertainty.
National Totals for 2026
The 2026 fire year now stands at 66,373 fires and 9,059,044 acres burned as of October 25, according to NIFC — roughly 133% of the 10-year average for fire count and 141% for acreage at that date. Those totals will change very little as the season winds down. National preparedness remains at Level 1, the lowest level, indicating resources are available and no emergency mobilization is underway.