Fire weather conditions across the Pacific Northwest are expected to remain well within normal parameters through at least November 8, 2026, according to the most recent outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center's Predictive Services unit and the National Weather Service. Cool temperatures, increasing precipitation, and rising relative humidity across the region are collectively driving wildfire potential down to its lowest levels since late spring.

Pacific Northwest Outlook: October 26 – November 8

The U.S. Wildfire Outlook for the period spanning October 26 through November 8 shows no widespread Red Flag Warning conditions expected across Oregon, Washington, or Idaho. The Climate Prediction Center's outlooks favored below-normal temperatures across Washington state entering this period, while Idaho's northern and central panhandle regions were also expected to see seasonable or below-normal warmth.

Precipitation patterns have been mixed — areas of northern and eastern Idaho and eastern Oregon received 125 to 200 percent of normal precipitation in October, providing meaningful moisture to fire-scarred landscapes. Some portions of the region, particularly southwestern Idaho, remain in drought conditions that have not fully recovered despite recent precipitation, but those areas are not currently generating significant fire weather concerns.

Idaho Fire Weather Forecast

The National Weather Service Spokane Fire Weather Forecast for northern and central Idaho confirms a benign outlook through early November. The 8- to 14-day outlook for the period of November 3 through 9 favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the region — a pattern that could increase fire weather sensitivity slightly compared to the near-term forecast, but not to levels expected to produce significant fire activity given current fuel moisture conditions.

Overnight lows in the mid-20s to low 30s across valley floors and mountain terrain are keeping fine fuel moisture elevated and preventing the kind of rapid drying cycles that drive dangerous fire weather conditions.

Seasonal Transition Complete

The NICC's October 1 seasonal outlook, the last major issuance before the November update, projected that all areas of the Pacific Northwest would see wildfire activity "diminish to normal off-season levels from late October onward, largely due to longer nights and shorter days." That projection has proven accurate, as October brought a progressive shutdown of active fire behavior across the region.

The October seasonal outlook also noted that southwest Idaho remained in exceptional drought conditions entering fall — the driest category on the U.S. Drought Monitor — a legacy of the summer's record heat and dryness. While that drought intensity does not currently translate to fire risk, it does set up a potentially challenging late-winter and early-spring shoulder season if snowpack fails to materialize at normal levels.

Prescribed Fire Window

The current weather pattern is creating a favorable window for prescribed fire operations across the region, with controllable winds, moderate relative humidity, and adequate fuel moisture to limit unintended spread. Land managers on the Rogue River-Siskiyou, Walla Walla, Lolo, and Bitterroot national forests are actively using this window to advance pile burn and broadcast burn projects before the season's prescribed fire window closes.

Residents near national forests in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana may notice smoke from prescribed burn operations on days with favorable burning conditions. All planned ignitions are coordinated with state air quality agencies to minimize smoke impacts on communities. The PNW Prescribed Fire Tracker provides daily updates on planned ignition activities.