Pacific Northwest Faces Above-Normal Fire Potential This Summer — Entire Region in the Bullseye by August

Federal fire forecasters are painting a stark picture for the Pacific Northwest this summer. According to the National Interagency Coordination Center's June seasonal outlook and supporting analysis from Northwest Coordination Center predictive services, above-normal significant wildfire potential is expected to sweep across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and southwest Montana beginning in July and reaching its peak in August and September.

The Forecast

The NICC June-through-September fire potential outlook, issued June 1, identifies the Pacific Northwest as a region of serious concern for the back half of the 2026 fire season. Key findings include:

Above-normal fire potential for Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and southwestern Montana expected beginning in July and intensifying through August
Idaho's Panhandle region — including Kootenai County and neighboring counties — projected to run significantly above normal in August
Below-normal precipitation expected across the Northwest in June, offering little relief before summer heat arrives
Drought already covers approximately 61% of the country, with the Pacific Northwest under drought stress heading into the dry season

Drought and Fuel Conditions

The stage for a dangerous fire season was set this past winter and spring. Below-average snowpack in many mountain ranges across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho has translated to early and rapid fuel drying at lower and mid elevations. Sagebrush-grass ecosystems in eastern Oregon and southern Idaho — which are already burning in early June — are particularly susceptible to rapid fire spread when relative humidity drops and winds pick up.

Forest fuels at higher elevations, including the ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests of the Cascades, Blue Mountains, and northern Idaho mountains, are accumulating heat and drying earlier than typical for June. By August, these fuel types will be at critical moisture levels.

What August Could Look Like

Fire analysts note that above-normal fire potential covering the entire Pacific Northwest simultaneously is a significant forecast outcome. In years like 2017, 2018, and 2020 — each of which saw major fire events across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho — the Pacific Northwest was similarly positioned heading into mid-summer.

The combination of drought-stressed fuels, the projected heat and dry conditions expected to build from the interior Southwest northward through July, and a fire suppression workforce stretched thin by early-season activity elsewhere sets up a potentially severe August and September for the region.

Smoke Impacts Expected to Broaden

Smoke from significant wildfire events in the Pacific Northwest historically affects air quality across hundreds of miles. Urban centers including Portland, Seattle, Spokane, and Boise have all experienced extended periods of unhealthy air quality during past fire seasons, and fire weather analysts say residents should prepare for smoke impacts beginning as early as July.

Area agencies, including the Olympic Region Clean Air Agency (ORCAA) and regional air quality districts across Oregon and Washington, have already begun public outreach through programs like Smoke Ready Week to prepare residents for the months ahead.

What You Can Do Now

Fire managers and emergency preparedness officials recommend residents take the following steps now, before conditions escalate:

Create and maintain defensible space around homes and structures
Develop a family evacuation plan and identify multiple exit routes
Sign up for local emergency notification systems
Stock up on N95 respirators and consider HEPA filtration for indoor air quality
Know your local evacuation level system and what each level means