Historic Fire Weather: Washington Sees First-Ever PDS Red Flag Warning as Dangerous Conditions Persist

The 2026 fire season has been defined in part by extreme weather events that have shattered historical records. The most dramatic of these occurred on August 1, when the Storm Prediction Center issued a rare Extremely Critical Risk in its Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook for the majority of Eastern Washington — dangerously high winds combined with critically low relative humidity created conditions that fire weather meteorologists described as some of the most extreme they had ever documented in the region.

Washington's First-Ever PDS Red Flag Warning

In response to the Extremely Critical Risk designation, the National Weather Service issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning across parts of eastern Washington and eastern Oregon — the first such warning ever issued in Washington state history. PDS Red Flag Warnings are reserved for conditions so extreme that catastrophic fire behavior is likely and firefighting suppression efforts may be largely ineffective during the warning period.

The warning proved tragically accurate. The same day, the Spokane Complex fires ignited, rapidly burning through 7,700-plus acres and destroying or damaging more than 600 structures in and around Spokane. Governor Bob Ferguson declared a statewide fire emergency and instituted an outdoor burn ban through September 30 — reflecting the severity of conditions across the state.

The July 15-16 Lightning Events: Season-Shaping Ignitions

The August 1 event did not occur in isolation. On July 15 and 16, dry thunderstorms — lightning with little or no associated rainfall — swept across much of Washington, triggering the issuance of red flag warnings for a large portion of the state. These storms ignited dozens of new fires within hours, including the Kaiser Canyon Fire near Nespelem, which exploded to over 50,000 acres within days.

The combination of record-low snowpack, an April statewide drought emergency declaration, and record summer heat had primed fuels across the region to a dangerous extreme. When the lightning arrived, landscapes that might otherwise have absorbed several small fires became tinderboxes capable of catastrophic spread.

Current and Ongoing Fire Weather Concerns

As of mid-August, fire weather conditions across the Pacific Northwest remain critically elevated, with both the Northwest and National Preparedness Levels at the maximum Level 5. The National Weather Service continues to issue Red Flag Warnings for portions of the region:

Western Columbia Gorge: A Red Flag Warning has been in effect due to strong easterly winds and low relative humidity.
Western Washington mountains: Portions of the Olympic Mountains and Cascade slopes above 1,500 feet have been under red flag conditions due to low humidity and gusty winds.
Central Oregon (Rowe Creek Complex area): A Red Flag Warning was issued August 13 as monsoon moisture triggered scattered dry thunderstorms over Crook County.
Whatcom County mountains: Fire weather concerns and air quality advisories in effect through mid-August.

What Drives Extreme Fire Weather in the Northwest

The Pacific Northwest's summer fire weather is primarily driven by three factors acting in combination: offshore high pressure systems that create hot, dry, and unstable air masses over the interior; low relative humidity (often dropping below 10-15 percent in eastern Oregon and Washington during peak season); and erratic wind events including outflow from thunderstorms and terrain-driven funneling through river valleys and mountain passes.

This season's drought conditions have amplified all three factors. Vegetation moisture content in grasses and shrubs across Eastern Washington, Eastern Oregon, and Southern Idaho is at critically low levels — meaning fuels are fully cured and ready to ignite with minimal provocation.

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