Fire managers and weather forecasters are warning that the 2026 fire season is far from over for the Pacific Northwest. The National Interagency Fire Center's Predictive Services group, in its September 2026 outlook, projects above-normal fire potential to persist across Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and much of the Great Basin through at least December 2026.

September Outlook Summary

The outlook, issued September 1 and valid through the end of the month, highlights several key conditions driving elevated risk:

  • Persistent drought: Much of eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Idaho remain in severe to extreme drought, with minimal precipitation forecast for the near term.
  • Fuel loading: Abundant dry grass and shrub fuels remain across the region, particularly in lower-elevation areas burned by the Big Grass Fire and adjacent unburned areas.
  • Pattern of reactivation: Forecasters noted "the pattern of rapidly resuming fire activity after every ensuing brief dry spell" as a key risk factor for the Great Basin northwest, citing above-normal fire activity and fire-ready fuels.
  • Wind events: Forecasters are tracking the potential for additional Red Flag-quality wind events as fall weather patterns develop, which could drive rapid fire spread on existing and new ignitions.

Red Flag Warning History This Season

The 2026 season has been punctuated by multiple extreme fire weather events across the Pacific Northwest. In early August, a "particularly dangerous situation" (PDS) Red Flag Warning — the highest severity designation — was issued for large portions of eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon, where dozens of large fires were already burning. That event contributed to the explosive growth of the Spokane Complex and rapid expansion of multiple eastern Oregon fires.

A subsequent Red Flag Warning event on September 1 triggered substantial expansion on existing fires in eastern Oregon and Washington and is associated with three new large fires near Spokane.

Watching for Wind Events

Fire weather forecasters at the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center (NWCC) in Boise are keeping a close eye on any weather pattern shifts that could bring renewed strong, dry winds — particularly offshore flow events that affect western Oregon and Washington, as well as easterly wind events across the Columbia River Gorge corridor. These events can rapidly push fire into populated areas with little warning.

Residents throughout the region are advised to maintain their fire preparedness into the fall. Red Flag conditions can develop quickly and spread fire with little notice.

What to Watch For

  • Monitor weather.gov for Red Flag Warnings in your area
  • Sign up for county emergency alerts through your local emergency management office
  • Know your evacuation zone and have a go-bag ready
  • Clear defensible space around structures — dry fall conditions accelerate ember transport
  • Check airnow.gov for daily air quality forecasts; smoke events can return with fire growth or wind shifts

National Preparedness Level

The National Preparedness Level (NPL) has been held at Level 5 — the maximum — throughout August and into September 2026. At NPL 5, essentially all available national firefighting resources are committed or reserved, and the system is operating at full stretch. The National Multi-Agency Coordination Group continues to prioritize resources across competing incidents based on threat to life, critical infrastructure, and potential for growth.