Critical fire weather conditions are gripping the Pacific Northwest and are expected to intensify through the coming weekend, with red flag warnings in place across much of southern and central Oregon, eastern Washington, and southwestern Idaho. Fire meteorologists are warning that any new ignitions under current conditions will catch and spread with explosive speed.

Current Conditions

Relative humidity across the western Great Basin, southwestern Idaho, and southern Oregon is falling to 10 to 15 percent during afternoon hours — well below the critical threshold of 25 percent. Temperatures at lower elevations in these areas are reaching 5 to 10 degrees above normal, exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit in many locations. Strong and gusty winds, shifting direction multiple times through the day, are adding to the hazard by increasing the rate of fire spread and making aerial retardant and water drops more difficult.

Dry and Wet Lightning Threat

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing across Washington and the Northern Rockies, with both wet and dry varieties possible. Dry thunderstorms — those that produce lightning but little or no rainfall at the surface — are particularly dangerous because the lightning strikes ignite fires without the rain to help suppress them. Fire managers reported more than 8,300 lightning strikes across Oregon in a single 24-hour period earlier this week, resulting in multiple new fire starts that are still being actively tracked.

Wet thunderstorms provide some temporary relief from heat but can also produce gusty outflow winds that cause rapid and unpredictable changes in fire behavior. Experienced firefighters treat thunderstorm outflow winds as serious safety hazards regardless of rainfall amounts.

The Weekend Forecast

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to expand and intensify this weekend across northern California, eastern Oregon and Washington, and portions of Idaho, Montana, and the Dakotas. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will persist with little overnight recovery for already depleted fuels.

For the Akawa Butte Fire area near Sisters, a wind shift from prevailing north-northeast to west-northwest is expected by midday Friday — a change that incident managers are preparing for by pre-positioning resources along potential fire corridors and strengthening contingency lines.

Outdoor Burning Prohibited

A Red Flag Warning means critical fire weather conditions are either already occurring or will shortly. All outdoor burning is strongly discouraged across the Pacific Northwest, and many counties and land management agencies have enacted formal burn restrictions or closures. Recreationists heading into backcountry areas should check current restrictions at their destination before lighting any campfire or using equipment that could produce sparks.

  • Oregon statewide burn restrictions: blm.gov/programs/fire/regional-info/oregon-washington/fire-restrictions
  • Washington fire restrictions: Check DNR and USFS websites for current restrictions by county
  • Idaho fire restrictions: Check BLM Idaho and Idaho DEQ for county-level guidance

Fire weather forecasters will continue to monitor the situation daily. Any change in the synoptic pattern that brings increased moisture and lower temperatures would be significant news for firefighters and communities alike — but that relief does not appear to be on the immediate horizon.