Last weekend, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued one of its most rarely used fire weather designations — a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning — for portions of eastern Washington and Oregon, including the Spokane and Pendleton areas. The warning reflected the most extreme end of foreseeable fire weather conditions, and the explosive growth of the Spokane Complex Fire validated meteorologists' worst-case projections.

What Made the Weekend's Conditions So Dangerous

The PDS Red Flag Warning is reserved for situations when a combination of critical fire weather factors creates the potential for rapid, explosive fire spread with conditions so severe that suppression resources cannot be expected to hold fire lines. Last weekend's conditions across eastern Washington and Oregon met this threshold:

  • Sustained winds of 20–35 mph with gusts exceeding 50 mph in exposed terrain
  • Relative humidity dropping to single digits across parts of eastern Washington
  • Critically desiccated fine fuels following a summer of well-below-normal precipitation
  • Temperatures running 10–15°F above seasonal averages
  • No chance of precipitation to moderate conditions

Fire weather alerts extended from eastern Oregon across eastern Washington into western Montana — one of the broadest simultaneous critical fire weather footprints the Northwest has seen in years. The PDS designation itself is rare: many NWS offices go years without issuing one.

Current and Near-Term Fire Weather

As of September 8–9, the most extreme conditions from last weekend have eased somewhat across the Pacific Northwest. Gradual moderation in temperatures and a slight increase in relative humidity are providing a brief window for firefighters to make progress on containment. However, the region remains far from out of danger:

  • Moderate to high fire weather risk continues across Wyoming and southeastern Montana
  • Some improvement noted in central and northern portions of the West, though fuels remain critically dry
  • NIFC weather forecasters anticipate another round of warming and drying possible in the Northwest over the coming week before any significant precipitation
  • Longer-range outlook calls for more frequent atmospheric rivers arriving this fall, but the timing of the first significant fall rain event remains uncertain

The Root Cause: A Summer of Exceptional Drought

The 2026 Pacific Northwest fire season's extraordinary severity traces to a weather pattern that began deteriorating in late winter. Below-normal snowpack across the Cascades, Olympics, and northern Rockies led to early snowmelt and significant soil moisture deficits entering fire season. A hot, dry summer — with temperatures tracking well above historical averages from June through August — then desiccated vegetation across the region, creating the critically dry fuel conditions that have made 2026 fires spread with such devastating speed and intensity.

The BLM's September warning that fire season "is not over" for Oregon and Washington reflects this fuel reality. Historically, some of the Northwest's most destructive fires — including the Labor Day fires of 2020 — have occurred in September when a powerful wind event strikes an already drought-stressed landscape. The 2026 pattern shows disturbing similarities.

Fire Weather Resources for the Public

  • weather.gov — NWS fire weather forecasts, Red Flag Warnings, and spot forecasts
  • gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc — Northwest Coordination Center 7-Day Significant Fire Potential outlook
  • nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf — NIFC monthly fire potential outlook
  • Local NWS offices in Portland, Seattle, Boise, and Spokane issue fire weather watches and warnings for their respective areas