Fire forecasters and land managers across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho are warning that the 2026 wildfire season could be one of the most severe in recent memory, shaped by historically low snowpack, an early onset of drought conditions, and below-normal precipitation that has persisted since winter.

Snowpack at Crisis Levels

Snowpack across much of the Pacific Northwest finished the winter season far below normal. In Washington state, officials declared a statewide drought on April 8 after monitoring data confirmed that snowpack had melted out approximately a month earlier than normal — a phenomenon driven by an unusually warm winter that brought rain where snow should have fallen. Similar conditions prevailed in Oregon, where the Oregon Climate Service described the 2025-2026 winter as among the warmest on record. Statewide, snowpack was running at roughly one-third of normal levels.

Snowpack serves as a natural reservoir, releasing meltwater slowly through spring and summer to keep vegetation green and fuels moist. When that reservoir is depleted early, forest and rangeland fuels dry out weeks sooner than typical, expanding the window of dangerous fire weather.

Outlook from NIFC

The National Interagency Fire Center's May 1 seasonal outlook projects above-normal wildfire potential across a corridor stretching from Arizona and New Mexico northward through Utah, Nevada, Idaho, western Montana, and into the Pacific Northwest east of the Cascades. The Pacific Northwest Coordination Center in Portland has been tracking the region's rapid fuel drying and briefed Oregon congressional representatives on the elevated threat earlier this month.

Oregon State Forester Kacey KC has said wildfire risk is likely to be above normal east of the Cascades in rangeland areas beginning in June, spreading above normal southwest of the Cascades by July. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts precipitation across the Northwest will remain below normal through at least June.

Early Fires a Warning Sign

The Pine Mountain Fire near Bend — which began as a prescribed burn in early May and grew to 2,589 acres before being fully contained — served as an early-season reminder that fire behavior is already aggressive. The Flat Fire in Jefferson County also flared under critical conditions before reaching containment this week.

"Wildfires are burning longer, moving faster and behaving less predictably than they did even a decade ago," the U.S. Forest Service warned in a recent news release. Experts note that Western Washington, not traditionally a focus of large fire events, is also seeing increased risk as drought extends west of the Cascades.

What Residents Should Do Now

Fire agencies and emergency managers are urging Pacific Northwest residents to take preparedness steps before peak season arrives:

  • Create or update a defensible space around homes — clear dry vegetation 30 to 100 feet from structures
  • Prepare a go-bag with at least 72 hours of supplies
  • Know your evacuation zone and at least two exit routes
  • Sign up for local emergency alerts through your county
  • Have a plan for pets and livestock

May is Wildfire Awareness Month nationwide, and agencies are asking residents to use this period to get prepared before conditions peak this summer.