The National Interagency Coordination Center's Predictive Services has released its October 2026 through January 2027 significant wildland fire potential outlook, projecting that fire risk will linger longest in the Southern geographic area — stretching from eastern Texas to Kentucky and including Puerto Rico — while the Pacific Northwest continues its seasonal transition toward more moderate conditions.
October Warm-Up: Short-Term Concern
Despite the improving overall trend, fire weather meteorologists are flagging a meaningful warm-up event during the first half of October. Temperatures across most of the West are running 5-15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal as high pressure dominates the region. Minimum relative humidity values remain very low in California and Nevada at 5-15% with poor overnight recovery, though the northern Intermountain West — including much of the Pacific Northwest — is seeing higher minima of 15-30%.
This warming and drying window could temporarily push Energy Release Component (ERC) values in parts of northern Nevada and southern Idaho back near the 90th percentile — historically a significant fire behavior threshold. However, NIFC forecasters note that the window is expected to be brief, with cooler and wetter systems forecast to return by mid-October.
Pacific Northwest Seasonal Transition
For Oregon and Washington, the October fire weather outlook is relatively balanced. The Climate Prediction Center shows equal chances of above or below normal temperatures across both states for October, followed by above normal temperatures expected later in the season — a pattern consistent with the El Nino influence that will increasingly shape the regional climate pattern into winter.
Critically, the transition to fall has brought shorter burn periods and more frequent cool-season systems that significantly limit opportunities for large fire growth. The NIFC seasonal outlook states that normal significant fire potential is expected to continue through January for the Northwest geographic area.
Red Flag Warning Season Recap
Through September, the National Weather Service issued Red Flag Warnings across the Northwest on six separate days due to dry, gusty — mainly onshore — wind events, below the monthly average of 8.3 Red Flag Warning days. Earlier this season, the NWS issued a rare Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warning across parts of eastern Washington and Oregon, including Spokane and Pendleton, during the period of most extreme fire weather that contributed to multiple large fire starts.
What Fire Managers Are Watching
With residual carryover fuels still present in parts of southern Idaho and eastern Oregon from above-average fire years, incident managers are maintaining heightened readiness even as the National Preparedness Level has dropped from 5 (the highest) to 2. The current 4,093 firefighters and support personnel assigned to active incidents nationally will be scaled back as the season continues to moderate, but pre-positioned resources will remain available should conditions unexpectedly worsen.
Residents throughout the region are encouraged to continue monitoring the National Weather Service fire weather forecast page at weather.gov/fire and to sign up for county emergency alert systems to receive localized warnings in real time.