NIFC August Outlook: Above-Normal Fire Potential Expected Across Entire Pacific Northwest

The National Interagency Fire Center released its August fire potential outlook on August 1, and the forecast offers little comfort for Pacific Northwest communities already deep in a severe fire season. Above-normal significant fire potential is projected across the entire northwestern United States for the month of August, from central Utah and western Wyoming westward to the Pacific Coast.

The Official Forecast

From the NIFC August outlook:

"From the current and past weather, as well as forecast conditions, August significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal across most of the northwestern U.S., from central Utah, northwest Colorado, western Wyoming, and northwest Montana westward to the Pacific Northwest coast."

This blanket of above-normal fire potential covers essentially the entire Pacific Northwest — Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana — as well as the northern Great Basin and northern Rocky Mountain states.

Why Conditions Are So Extreme

Several converging factors are driving this forecast:

Record-dry fuels: Live and dead fuel moisture levels across eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and southern Idaho are at or near record lows for this time of year, reflecting a warm, dry spring and summer with below-normal precipitation
Persistent drought: Much of the Pacific Northwest has been under moderate to severe drought conditions that have continued to worsen through summer
Warm soil temperatures: Warm soil temperatures accelerate fuel drying and reduce the moderating effect of morning dew
Recurring heat events: Temperatures at lower elevations across the inland Northwest have repeatedly exceeded 100°F this summer, further curing vegetation

Season-to-Date Statistics Paint a Grim Picture

The 2026 fire season is significantly outpacing historical averages. Through August 3, 2026:

Total fires: 44,722 (vs. 10-year average of 35,039 — 28% above average)
Total acres burned: 5,154,596 (vs. 10-year average of 3,759,429 — 37% above average)
2025 comparison: 41,733 fires / 3,396,344 acres — 2026 is already 1.76 million acres ahead of 2025's pace
Active large fires: 102 uncontained fires burning across 15 states

Historical Context

For comparison, the 2021 season — which included the Bootleg Fire and other record-breaking Oregon fires — had burned 3,259,913 acres through the same date. The 2022 season had 5,802,433 acres through August 3 — the closest analog to 2026's current pace. Only 2022 has seen more acres burned at this point in the season in the past decade.

What This Means Going Forward

Fire managers warn that the most active portion of the Pacific Northwest fire season often runs from mid-July through mid-September. With above-normal potential forecast through August and fuel conditions already at critically low moisture levels, the season has weeks of elevated risk remaining.