The National Interagency Fire Center reported this week that 9,388,904 acres have burned across the United States through the end of October 2026 — representing 146% of the previous 10-year average. A total of 67,640 wildfires were recorded nationally, also above average at 133% of the historical norm.

As fire weather has moderated across much of the country, the National Preparedness Level — a measure of nationwide firefighting resource demand on a scale of 1 to 5 — dropped from Level 2 to Level 1 on October 14, its lowest setting. This signals that fire activity has fallen to a point where national resources are largely available for initial attack rather than committed to ongoing large fires.

November–December Outlook: Normal Conditions Expected

NIFC's November 2 Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, covering November through February, calls for normal significant fire potential across the contiguous United States for November and December. Above-normal potential is confined to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

For the Pacific Northwest specifically, the outlook is favorable. Above-normal precipitation is expected across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho through the end of the year, and snowpack is building in mountain areas after last winter's near-historic shortfalls. The Northwest Coordination Center reports regional preparedness remained at Level 2 through most of the fall before aligning with the national Level 1 drop.

Fire Weather Conditions in the PNW

No red flag warnings or fire weather watches are currently active in Oregon, Washington, or Idaho. Relative humidity values across the region have been elevated by recent rain events, and fuel moisture readings at monitoring stations across eastern Oregon and eastern Washington are well above the thresholds associated with elevated fire risk.

Forecasters note that La Niña conditions — which contributed to last winter's poor snowpack and this summer's severe fire season — are expected to weaken or transition toward neutral ENSO conditions by early 2027. How that transition affects next year's fire season will depend heavily on precipitation patterns through winter and spring.

The Toll of 2026

The 2026 season's national acreage total puts it among the worst on record. The Pacific Northwest bore a disproportionate share of the burden:

  • Oregon: 2.5+ million acres burned — a new all-time state record
  • Washington: 1+ million acres burned, including the 172,912-acre Little Giant Fire on the Okanogan-Wenatchee NF
  • Idaho: Significant fire activity, particularly in northern and central portions of the state
  • National suppression costs: Estimated in excess of $3 billion
  • Total wildfires reported nationally: 67,640

Prescribed Burning Ramps Up Nationally

With fire weather calming, land managers across the country are capitalizing on the off-season to conduct prescribed burns. NIFC noted that prescribed burning activity "noticeably increased" through the fall as crews shifted from suppression to fuel management work. This proactive management is a critical tool in reducing the kind of fuel accumulations that drove the extreme fire behavior seen across the Pacific Northwest in 2026. The next NIFC seasonal outlook is scheduled for issuance on December 1.