Despite the official arrival of autumn, fire weather concerns are returning to the Pacific Northwest and much of the West. National Interagency Fire Center weather forecasters warn of a warming and drying pattern building this week that will persist through at least mid-October, keeping fire risk elevated even as the calendar turns.

Current Weather Pattern

As of October 3, NIFC meteorologists report that a warming trend is pushing temperatures 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal across most of the western United States. Minimum relative humidity values are very low in California and Nevada, running just 5 to 15 percent, with poor overnight recovery in many locations. The northern Intermountain West, including parts of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, is seeing slightly higher minimum humidity values of 15 to 30 percent, but conditions remain drier than normal.

Winds are expected to remain light across California and Nevada, but locally breezy west winds are developing near and east of the Continental Divide in Montana and Wyoming, which could create localized fire spread risks.

The Forecast Through Mid-October

The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day outlook (October 6 through 12) shows above-normal temperatures favored across most of the West, with below-normal precipitation likely for Washington, Oregon, northern California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming. This combination of warmth and dryness will maintain receptive fuel conditions in areas that have already seen minimal fall precipitation.

NICC Predictive Services’ new significant wildland fire potential outlook for October through January indicates that fire potential is expected to linger longest in the Southern geographic area (eastern Texas through Kentucky) and Puerto Rico into the winter months. The Pacific Northwest is expected to gradually moderate, but the near-term window through mid-October remains of concern.

A Record Year Nationally

As of October 2, the National Interagency Fire Center reports the following year-to-date national statistics:

  • Total fires in 2026: 62,738 — 135% of the 10-year average
  • Total acres burned: more than 9 million — 147% of the 10-year average
  • 2025 comparison (same date): 53,319 fires, 4.69 million acres
  • 2024 comparison (same date): 39,169 fires, 7.44 million acres

The 2026 season has significantly outpaced all recent years in both fire count and acreage, making it a statistically severe season even by the elevated baseline of recent decades.

National Preparedness Level

NIFC’s National Preparedness Level currently stands at 2 (on a scale of 1 to 5), down from Level 3 in September as the most intense fire activity has eased. However, the 11 active large fires currently burning across five states reflect that the season is not yet over.

Current large fires are burning in Washington (5 fires), Oregon (2), California (2), Alabama (1), and Texas (1), with a total of approximately 1.64 million acres still involved in active fire situations.

Drought Conditions Persist

Underlying fire conditions remain elevated due to an extraordinary year of drought. Approximately 59% of the Lower 48 states remains in some level of drought, with exceptional drought conditions across much of northern Texas and western Oklahoma. El Niño conditions are strengthening, with forecasters giving a 75% probability of El Niño reaching historic strength this fall and winter, which generally signals a wetter-than-normal Pacific Northwest but does not guarantee immediate relief from current dry conditions.