The National Weather Service has issued a fire weather watch for Central and Eastern Oregon as dangerous atmospheric conditions continue to fuel the state's already catastrophic fire season. Meteorologists warn that a combination of dry lightning, critically low humidity, and above-normal temperatures creates the ideal environment for new fire ignitions and extreme fire behavior.

Current Fire Weather Conditions

As of July 31, 2026, fire weather conditions across the inland Pacific Northwest are exceptional in the worst sense of the word:

  • Relative humidity: 8–20% across much of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, with very low overnight recovery of 10–30% in many areas
  • Temperatures: 5–15°F above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across Central and Eastern Oregon
  • Wind: Primarily light outside of Cascade gap winds, but localized gusts have been exceeding 30 mph during red flag events
  • Fuel moisture: Critically low across both fine and coarse fuels following weeks of heat and drought

Dry Thunderstorm Threat

The highest-confidence area for isolated dry thunderstorms today covers north-central and eastern Idaho, extending into southern Montana and western Wyoming. A lower-probability but potentially high-impact zone for isolated dry thunderstorms extends from eastern Washington into northwest Montana. Forecasters note that even a single lightning strike can start a fire that grows rapidly given current fuel conditions.

"The worst thing is that it's dry. The pattern is fairly persistent going forward. Until it rains there, it doesn't look like there's much hope," said Bob Oravec, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.

Red Flag Conditions: What They Mean

A red flag warning — or fire weather watch, which precedes the warning — indicates conditions are ideal for wildfire ignition and spread. For a red flag warning to be issued, three criteria must typically be met simultaneously: relative humidity at or below 15%, wind speeds above 25 mph, and fuel moisture below critical thresholds. All three are currently being met or approached across large portions of Eastern Oregon.

During active red flag conditions, even a spark from a vehicle dragging a chain, an off-road vehicle, or fireworks can start a fire that rapidly becomes uncontrollable. Oregon's Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect across much of the affected area, prohibiting campfires, charcoal fires, and other open burning on both public and private lands in some areas.

The Lightning Season Isn't Over

The thunderstorm season in the Pacific Northwest typically peaks in mid-to-late summer, which means the ignition risk from lightning remains elevated through August. Fire managers are pre-positioning resources near areas of highest risk and are monitoring weather forecasts closely for new lightning activity.

Residents and recreationists should avoid any spark-producing activities outdoors during fire weather watch or red flag warning periods, and should report any smoke or fire immediately to 911.